UKC Forums - Repeat Crosses....how often do they work?

Pages (8): « First ... « 6 7 [8]
Show all 186 posts from this thread on one page

UKC Forums (http://forums.ukcdogs.com/index.php)
- Redbones (http://forums.ukcdogs.com/forumdisplay.php?forumid=51)
-- Repeat Crosses....how often do they work? (http://forums.ukcdogs.com/showthread.php?threadid=928305231)

Posted by honalieh on 04-03-2019 04:34 AM:

Another way of looking at it.

quote:
Originally posted by Hoosier Outlaw
Anyone out there make a repeat breeding where the original cross produced 2 or more titled offspring and the repeat cross produced an equal or greater number of titled offspring? If so I would really like to hear about it.

Anyone out there make a first time cross that worked really well, then bred that same female to a different stud dog and got lesser results? That is your same scenario, except we went a different direction with the next cross.

If you really want to evaluate repeat crosses, you have to look at:
(1) What is the overall success rate of all first time crosses (most don't work particularly well).
vs.
(2) What is the overall success rate of all repeat crosses where the first cross worked really well.

Outstanding crosses set the bar high to meet or exceed, whether repeating or going a different direction. That said, if I'm buying a pup, I'd rather have one from a cross that has already worked over one from a cross that has never worked yet.

Posted by John Burns on 04-09-2019 01:58 AM:

REPEAT CROSSES,HOW OFTEN DO THEY WORK.

Shane, I suspect you have asked a question that will be difficult to answer but you aren't the first to ask it nor are you the first to say that repeat crosses generally don't work as well as the first.

Berton Oney, a hound dog man of some notoriety is reported to have said," A cross after the first, will never be as good as the first".

Many houndsmen hold the opinion that if there are ten pups in a litter, only five will get a fair chance. To readily accept this opinion, it is helpful to recognize that some will get run over, shot, die of some illness, be chained to a box for years, not hunted, be owned by an idiot etc.

John Wick, a breeder of high repute holds the opinion that crosses subsequent to the first are seldom, if ever, the equal to the first cross. Mr Wick also counsels that one should find a breeder that is successful and buy a pup from him. I think that this is good advice because even though I have hunted quite a bit and had some good dogs, I realize that I will never be as wise as some of the top breeders out there.

The trick, as I see it, is to find a reputable breeder that is breeding for the kind of dog you want to hunt. If a breeder is breeding for some special kind of a fast strike, go deep, barn burner competition dog and you are looking for a mellow mouthed, cold nosed hound, that hunts close enough so that you can catch him before daylight, pleasure hound that don't tax you too much you might want to look up another breeder.

I am a five day walk from knowing all there is to know about this subject so this is just one man's opinion.

__________________
John Burns

Posted by Hoosier Outlaw on 04-09-2019 10:04 PM:

I've studied repeat crosses for about 30 years now...because some of the first pups I got (walkers) were from repeat crosses where the first cross produced several really big winners. I paid dearly ($600-$1200) for 4 different pups from repeat crosses that should have been a sure thing.... only to find out my pup didnt have the same talent and abilities of those in the original cross. That prompted me to track down the others who got the rest of the pups from those repeat crosses and keep tabs on those pups as well. Turns out that the 4 original first time crosses produced 13 big winning Grand nites 2 of which were world champions and several others were gold or platinum champs in pkc. But the repeat crosses produced 4 nite champions and 2 grand nites and no big money winners that I could find.
Now one would think...that because these pups were from "proven" crosses that there was much more interest by very experienced hunters and trainers who were willing to pay double or even triple the going rate for pups in the mid to late 80's and that these pups would have an even better chance at turning out than the original 1st time crosses....
But even though they most likely did get a better chance and even more opportunity than the original crosses...the evidence clearly shows that they did not have the same level of ability and talent to tree coons and win.
I know, I know.....its counter intuitive. It shouldnt be...it cant be....
I mean they have the same parents...the same blood and dna as their older full brothers and sisters...so they have to be the same...right???
Wrong! Just like every kid is different...even with the same parents....even twins will likely be different in their likes and abilities and talents...
That's why most litters of dogs may have a couple pups who go on to be really good or great....a couple that are average and the rest will basically be duds.
How can that be when they are essentially twins with same dna and blood?
Well....the fact is, they dont actually have the same dna. The chromosomes, traits, and attributes dont line up the same in every pup....in any litter.
It's like a bingo ball machine...when you make a cross with two dogs you dump in all the different traits and abilities of both parents...and all their ancestors and it gets mixed up and spits out a particular sequence for each pup. Some crosses will produce litters where half or more of the pups will have the "right" traits all line up just right and produce several really good dogs who go on to win big. Let's say these are the "original" crosses that are the reason and basis for most repeat crosses.
These crosses themselves....where several pups turn out to be big winners are rare...probably one out of 20 or more crosses would be an educated guess.
So most crosses never reach the level of these where everything lines up in the right proportions in 3, 4 or more pups that enable them to have the ability to win big.
So producing this type of cross is already a longshot ...with let's say has 20 to 1 odds.
So the owner of the dam of one of these crosses decides to repeat the cross because he knows there will be a big demand for pups out of a "PROVEN" cross and he can ask higher prices because people will think it's a sure thing...
So he makes the cross and all those bingo balls from both parents and all their ancestors get thrown back into the hopper and are bouncing and popping and getting all mixed up and when they are drawn out for each pup....those 20 to 1 odds didnt work this time and none or maybe one pup comes out with that "perfect combination" of traits needed to be able to have the ability to win big.
People say wheel how can that be? It's the same blood...same dna.
Same blood...not same dna and definitely not same combination and concentration of the stuff that gives every pup its individual identity, traits, talent, and overall ability.
The odds of any well planned, well thought out cross producing a high percentage of pups with the right combination and concentration of what it needs to become a great coon dog and big winner is probably in the neighborhood of 20 to 1 (my educated guess) the fact that the first time cross was lucky enough to beat the odds is very impressive.....but to roll the same two dice again and hit the exact same number combination is almost impossible and that is a fact backed up by lots and lots of evidence compiled by those who have actually studied this phenomenon and come to the same conclusion that I have.
Which is...
If you have a female who has proven herself as a reproducer of some top dogs and big winners....your odds of producing a great litter of more big winners is alot better if you dont make a repeat cross where the odds are almost certainly against getting as good or better results as was attained with the original first time cross.
Guys will argue that it doesnt make sense....but lots of things in this world dont make sense....but they still happen. Many experienced breeders know this and stopped making repeat crosses long ago because it destroys your females reproducing record. If they have a female that proves she can reproduce winners from her first cross....they seek out the best studs and will breed to a different one every time.
Take my Breanna female for example...bred to 5 different studs...has titled dogs from all 5 crosses. Total of 8 grand nites and 5 nite champions .....if I had kept repeating that first cross I am almost sure she would have 5 or less titled dogs from the same number of overall offspring. That's why I just dont do it.
I can count on one hand the number of repeat crosses that have equaled or bettered the results of original 1st time great crosses that produced 3 or more gr.nt.ch. big winners in the original cross out of over a hundred crosses I have studied going back 30 years in all breeds.
The evidence shows that if you had a really great cross the first time which produced several big winners....that repeating that same cross...you have less than a 5% chance (1 out of 20) of getting equal or better results from the repeat cross. So for those who dont believe it...try it and see.
But i learned my lesson the hard way and choose not to go against odds that steep in my breeding program.

__________________
Shane Maxey
Proud lifetime member of the NRA
Banshee Wildlife Products
Hoosier Outlaw / Moonlight Redbones
1994 American Redbone Coonhound Association Hunter of the Year
My first 3 redbones raised from pup's were:
Dual Gr.Ch. Outlaw Billy the Kid
Dual Gr.Ch.- PKC Ch. Outlaw Timber Girl
Dual Gr.Ch. Outlaw Scarlett Fever
(((( Current Favorites ))))
2013 AKC Ladies World Champion
Gr.Nt.Ch.- PKC Ch- AKC Ladies World Ch Ky Moonlight Breanna
Gr.Nt.Ch. - PKC Ch. Ky Moonlight Woody
Dual Grand Moonlight Deana
Dual Grand Ch.- PKC Ch. Moonlight AfterShock
Dual Grand Nighty Night Amber
Gr.Nt.Ch. Moonlight Big Time Britt
Gr.Nt.Ch Outlaw Billy Jean
Gr.Nt.Ch-PKC Ch.-2015 PKC Red Days Champ Outlaw Cherry Bomb
Gr.Nt.Ch Outlaw Breeze
Gr.Nt.Ch.Gr.Ch. All Grand Outlaw G-Man (over $20.000 won in PKC & CHKC) 2019 Southern Redbone Days Overall Champion
Gr.Nt.Ch. Moonlight Outlaw Mac
Gr.Nt.Ch. Classy Cali (Heavy Outlaw bred)
Gr.Nt.Ch. Moonlight Cat Scratch Fever
Gr.Nt.Ch. Moonlight Addiction
Gr.Nt.Ch. Moonlight Overdose
Gr.Nt.Ch. Moonlight Jinx
Gr.Nt.Ch. Moonlight Banshee
"Always outnumbered...Never outgunned!"
To enjoy lots of pics and videos of out redbones, find me on Facebook
as Shenandoah Maxey

Posted by George pouliott on 04-10-2019 02:08 AM:

Repeat crosses

At first thought I take away money competition and na sayers . Second I concentrate on what my goals are . Now I look at what I have I make a x for the better . Thankfully I end up with an outstanding cross . As Mr. Lambert would say a super x . As expectations have been overwhelmingly successful . I have to make a decision . This is the hard part see . I can make the same x and hope for the best and have several full brother sister's on the yard that now have to be outcrossed completely . Or I can breed to another dog and hope for the same results as the first . Now if either of the second crosses are not equal to the first I have the ability to breed back half brother half sister to try to regain what I lost or I could be stuck with full brother sister that has to be outcrossed and may further more bring me away from my goal . We all know in one x you can lose a lot and it can take a lot of time to get it back . We can't have that trying to be on the fast track to winning . In another world I have made the same x more then once and all 3 litters turned out not 100 % but say 19 out of 28 pups . Handler error ? Not given the chance ? Hard to say and keep up with them all . Though one would think if a x was to be done 2x in the redbone breed it would have been Stevo x Chilli a super x but it never was one wonder why not .

__________________
Work hard hunt harder .
9042195035

Posted by honalieh on 04-17-2019 05:47 AM:

I'm playing Poker, and the first hand I'm dealt is a Straight Flush. I'm Playing Black Jack, and the first hand I'm dealt is a Black Jack.

Now the same deck of cards are reshuffled for a second hand. And I don't get a Straight Flush or Black Jack on the second deal.

In this case, the chance of the second hand being as good as the first hand are extremely remote. In this case the second hand (cross) has little to no opportunity of being as good as the first.

But often times, our first hand isn't very good, and we will get our best hand on the 2nd, 4th, or 6th deal. Does this mean that 2nd time, 4th time, or 6th time crosses are better than the 1st? Of course not. Most 1st time crosses aren't that great. The ones that are have beat the odds.

Coin Flip Test. Flip a penny 7 times and see how many heads you get in 1st 7 flips. Now do the same 3 more times (cross 2,3,4) and evaluate the results. Do this enough times and it should come out that your first 7 flips (first cross) will equal or better all subsequent 7 flips (crosses) about 25% of the time. But it works the other way around too.

So, if you make a cross twice, the first cross should be equal to or better than the second cross 50% of the time. Same with second crosses. But, if you only make 2nd time crosses, when the 1st worked really well, the 2nd cross typically won't measure up (statistically speaking). You can beat the odds once. It's much harder to beat the odds two times in a row.

It's the same with people. It's not always the oldest (first) brother/sister that is the most intelligent/athletic/best looking. I'd really like to think that is the case, but my younger brothers would disagree. But, what do they know. I'll just tell them that some coonhound breeders professing genetic knowledge have confirmed that the first is the best!!! That should convince them!!!

Posted by jdgher on 04-17-2019 02:52 PM:

Re: Repeat crosses

quote:
Originally posted by George pouliott
At first thought I take away money competition and na sayers . Second I concentrate on what my goals are . Now I look at what I have I make a x for the better . Thankfully I end up with an outstanding cross . As Mr. Lambert would say a super x . As expectations have been overwhelmingly successful . I have to make a decision . This is the hard part see . I can make the same x and hope for the best and have several full brother sister's on the yard that now have to be outcrossed completely . Or I can breed to another dog and hope for the same results as the first . Now if either of the second crosses are not equal to the first I have the ability to breed back half brother half sister to try to regain what I lost or I could be stuck with full brother sister that has to be outcrossed and may further more bring me away from my goal . We all know in one x you can lose a lot and it can take a lot of time to get it back . We can't have that trying to be on the fast track to winning . In another world I have made the same x more then once and all 3 litters turned out not 100 % but say 19 out of 28 pups . Handler error ? Not given the chance ? Hard to say and keep up with them all . Though one would think if a x was to be done 2x in the redbone breed it would have been Stevo x Chilli a super x but it never was one wonder why not .

George,
The Steve-O and Chili cross was made 3 times that I can think of (could be 4 or 5). The offspring I'm familiar with share the same hunting traits and are different ages (have same hunting traits good and not so good). I'd sure like to have another one.

__________________
Darrin Gher
Elbridge Redbones
Home of
GRNTCH PR' Steve-O and Chili's Red Flow
NTCH PR' Twisters Musical Red Huey DNA-VIP Perf Sire 06'07 Deceased 11/07
Former Home of
NTCH 'PR' Swann's Lonesome Red Music/ Kitty
NTCH. CH PR' SawBlade Red Reckon
NTCH. CH PR' Gher's Timber Mt. Brandy
Breeder of
GRNTCH PR' Daugherty's Red BUBBA
NTCH CH PR' BA'S Tree Top Rockin Griddle
NTCH PR' Lickcreek Backwoods Lil Red Annie

Posted by George pouliott on 04-18-2019 03:10 PM:

Thanks I didn't know it was made more then once . And several at that . Yet I don't believe I've seen but 1 for sale in a while . When you can't buy it that means something

__________________
Work hard hunt harder .
9042195035

Posted by Richard Lambert on 04-18-2019 03:52 PM:

Steve O x Chilli produced 28 pups and 11 of them were titled. This is from Top Reproducers list in Bloodlines. But I don't know which litters these 11 were out of. I have owned 2 of them. The original question all depends on what is meant by "worked". Of course, some repeat crosses "worked". The question is how many "worked" compared to how many did not. And surely no one would make a repeat cross if the first one did not work.

Posted by Hoosier Outlaw on 04-18-2019 08:31 PM:

quote:
Originally posted by Richard Lambert
Steve O x Chilli produced 28 pups and 11 of them were titled. This is from Top Reproducers list in Bloodlines. But I don't know which litters these 11 were out of. I have owned 2 of them. The original question all depends on what is meant by "worked". Of course, some repeat crosses "worked". The question is how many "worked" compared to how many did not. And surely no one would make a repeat cross if the first one did not work.

I tried to be pretty clear on what "worked" means in the original question...
I set a baseline starting point of using only successful first time crosses that produced a minimum number of titled competition offspring. Then the question concerns how many repeat breedings of those same crosses produced an equal or higher number of titled offspring.
This is only looking at competition dogs....not pleasure dogs. I did that for a reason....to remove personal opinion from the analysis and keep from clouding the the issue.
But.....as usual, it didnt stop a lot of people from veering off course and giving their opinion and theories without fact based evidence to back it up.
It's hard for most people to believe the actual evidence...because its counter intuitive....or goes against what most would think it should be.
Of all the repeat crosses I have looked into and studied and the ones that others have mentioned which are well over 100 in number going back nearly 30 years...I have found 2 repeat crosses that produced equal or higher number of titled offspring as the original first time successful cross.
Now I have asked many times on here for people to give me some examples of repeat crosses that have beat the odds....but they usually name a cross and say they know it was repeated and that there were good dogs from every cross but they dont know how many titled. That's fine...but doesnt answer the real question with cold hard facts ...which is what we really need to prove or disprove this phenomenon.
For example, the Steve O x Chili cross. To accurately use this cross as an example, we need to know how many offspring titled from the very first cross (that's the baseline) then we need solid numbers of titled offspring from each repeat cross.....not a total of all repeat crosses combined...but a total from each individual cross.
Then we can answer the question of whether any of those repeat crosses beat the odds and produced equal or more titled offspring than the 1st (baseline) cross.
To change the criteria or muddy the waters by saying well this Dog or that dog was good enough to title but never got a chance is to change the whole question to fit the answer some people want to hear.
But I can tell you this much....
Even if one of the Steve O x Chili repeat crosses do prove to have beaten the odds...that will make 3 times out of nearly 125 repeat crosses I have studied that have beat the odds.
Now ask yourself....are the odds in favor or against repeat crosses producing equal or better numbers of titled offspring as the original cross that produced 3 or more titled winners?
I for one can read those numbers as being that there is about a 98% chance that repeat crosses will not produce as many titled winners as the original cross....so why roll the dice against odds like that?
If you know the female proved herself as a reproducer with the first cross...why not breed to a different stud which will give you way better odds of producing more offspring that can win and title in competition?
Lastly....I am not saying and have never said repeat crosses do not or cannot produce good dogs and some winners.....I am simply saying that after a lot of research based on real facts and accurate numbers....that your odds go way down on repeat crosses.
People do what they want...and always will.
I have made my choice and just explained what led me to that choice....and shared it on here to help anyone interested in being a breeder of competition dogs.
Good luck to everyone working on and with the redbone breed!

Posted by oklared on 04-20-2019 12:34 AM:

SOME TIME THEY WORK AND SOME TIME THEY DONT

__________________
HOME OF 2010 HIGH SCOREING REDBONE FEMALE, DUAL CH Y2KD, #7 REPRODUCING RED FEMALE
NT.Ch. WINNER AT REDBONE SEC. 2008
3RD PL. NT.CH. 2009 BATTLE OF BREEDS AT ADA OKLA.
4TH PLACE R.Q.E 2010
2ND PLACE OVERALL AT ZONE 4 AND DOUBLE CAST WINNER 2010
WENT TO 2010 WORLD HUNT
AMERICAN REDBONE ASSOCIATION HIGH SCOREING REDBONE FEMALE OF THE 2010 WORLD HUNT
OVERALL HI SCOREING DOG AT 2010 BBCHA BLUE TIC SECTIONAL
GR.NT.CH. AT 12 and A HALF
MADE-EM SEE RED

Posted by honalieh on 04-20-2019 08:21 AM:

YEP

quote:
Originally posted by oklared
SOME TIME THEY WORK AND SOME TIME THEY DONT

Yep. I agree.

If I get a good one, the cross worked. If not, the cross didn't work for me. That's what matters to me. I just know what I see.

All times are GMT. The time now is 12:14 PM.

Pages (8): « First ... « 6 7 [8]
Show all 186 posts from this thread on one page