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quote:
Originally posted by 4play
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Jobless claims preview: Another 789,000 Americans likely filed new unemployment claims last week
Emily McCormick
Emily McCormick·Reporter
Wed, January 13, 2021, 2:16 PM EST
States likely saw roughly the same number of individuals file for first-time unemployment benefits last week as during the prior week, with the weekly pace of new jobless claims easing slightly from December’s elevated levels.
The U.S. Department of Labor is set to release its weekly report on new jobless claims Thursday morning at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here were the main results expected in the report, compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:
Initial jobless claims, week ended Jan. 9: 789,000 expected vs. 787,000 during the prior week
Continuing claims, week ended Jan. 2: 5.000 million expected vs. 5.072 million during the prior week
New initial unemployment claims are expected to dip below 800,000 for a third straight week, showing signs of a tentative return to a downtrend after claims spiked throughout much of December. Initial jobless claims have stayed below the 1 million mark in every week since late August, after peaking at a record nearly 7 million in March.
“Recent jobless claims data suggest December may mark the trough in recent labor market weakness, particularly with additional fiscal support in the pipeline,” Nomura Chief Economist Lewis Alexander said in a note. “However, significant downside risks for the labor market will persist until the pandemic comes more under control in the U.S.”
While both new and continuing jobless claims have eased significantly from their pandemic-era highs, both remain well above levels from before the pandemic, when new jobless claims were averaging at just over 200,000 per week and continuing claims were coming in well below 2 million. And last week’s December jobs report showed that the U.S. economy was still about 9.8 million payrolls short of its February levels, with a still-elevated unemployment rate and depressed labor force participation rate. Though the vaccine rollout and additional fiscal stimulus may have alleviated some of the pressure, some economists are bracing for a multi-year recovery in the labor market.
“Weekly jobless claims were 787,000 to start the new year for the January 2 week which indicates the recession in the labor market isn’t over yet and hardship remains for millions of Americans without paychecks,” Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist for MUFG Union Bank, said in a note.
Based on last week’s data, more than 19 million Americans were still claiming unemployment benefits of some form, including 12.9 million individuals on pandemic-era federal unemployment programs.
This post will be updated with the results of the Labor Department’s weekly jobless claims report Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Che
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01-10-2021 04:28 PM
